Egypt Take 2
Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:53am
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/three-americans-arrested...
I've been reading a bit about what's going on lately in Egypt and it seems like Occupy Wall Street is sort of our own little "G Rated" (relatively speaking) version with Bloomberg playing the role of the military, OWS are the people, and The Tea Party occasionally chiming in as The Muslim Brotherhood. Oh yeah, and sadly, Obama is playing Obama in both.
FIY. When we finally get down to making meaningful cuts in US military spending let's try to learn from this lesson and prepare ourselves. I'm just sayin...
Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:50am
#2
Fantastic Post.
Thank you for this. I feel so lucky to have this special first hand insight into what's going on there. Sounds like a real Catch 22. I think we can learn from Egypt. Looks like the military is trying for option A (unfortunately?). http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/three-americans-arrested-in-cairo-as...
I think the US's position of asking for "tolerance on both sides" is outrageous. When a group with guns and riot gear are beating and killing another group that's just a human rights issue. Regardless of political connections we should condemn these attacks.
Obviously, I was being tongue and cheek with the OWS comparison. But I love watching these 2 parallel movements happening. Is there any advice you would give to the OWS crowd in their attempts to make real change in the gov, the way protesters did in Cairo? Or is it a matter of focusing more on creating a solid new political party (something both appear to be struggling with). What groups best represent the protesters in Egypt right now. I think, in a way, the strength of OWS comes from it's lack of centralized power. This makes it much harder to co opt. Unfortunately, this also makes it a much harder to sell to the general public. It's very sad for me to see how governments consistently use police intimidation tactics to diffuse non violent protesting. It just seems to escalate the tension. I fear that OWS will eventually become more violent. It's the only thing that seems to get people's attention on a large scale.
I'm not there this time. I moved back home to deal with some medical issues but I have been in contact with friends there. The events in Tahrir and the surrounding area is not reflective of the rest of the city. Cairo is a huge city of 20 million and for the most part its business as usual. Also, there's a lot of areas outside Cairo, Alexandria, and Suez that are very quiet. The internet hasn't been shut off and they didn't release prisoners from the jails, so the public at large are not freaking out like we all were in January. Also, while State TV is still the voice of the regime, they realize they actually have to acknowledge that the protests EXIST this time.
The attitude of the population towards the protestors is more positive than the general public here views the OWS crowd. Mostly because the protestors were successful in taking down Mubarak (not the regime itself- but its head), everyone adopted this "We did it" mentality even though they were bitching about the revolution the entire time it was going on. Also, it may have been the circles I travelled in, but a lot of people I met claimed to support the revolution, but they certainly didn't like it. The revolution sparked protests from all sectors, where workers were demanding the removal of their own mini-Mubaraks, and the business community was not happy. By the time I left, "patriotic" signs were popping up all over the place asking Egyptians to get back to work
My boyfriend in Egypt was an officer in the army, and his vision of the future Egypt was a Parliament, a President with weaker power, and the military running things in the background and completely unaccountable to the Parliament or the population at large. Any attempts to reason with him were pretty fruitless, and he never really understood why people didn't like that idea. He used to ask me to gauge the reaction on Twitter, and could not understand why people were upset with the army, the saviors of the revolution. The fact that his family owns three vacation homes, and at least six cars had nothing to do with it- after all- they aren't really THAT rich because he can't afford a boat right now.
The way things are going right now- the army has two choices, they can continue running Egypt or they can keep the power and the influence they have built up over the past sixty years. If Tantawi and the SCAF agree to hand over power to a civilian government immediately, I'm pretty sure they can convince that civilian government to not touch any of their budget. They can fade into the background once again, pulling strings when they need to, and representing US interests. If they continue to run the country outright, then people are going to demand accountability, and they risk losing a lot of their perks.
Obviously, while Choice B is better in the long term (accountability to the population is the best disinfectant), it means a lot more instability in Egypt for the foreseeable future. It would require a complete gutting of a political and economic institutions that have ruled Egypt for the past sixty years at least, many going back further. It's going to mean more rough economic times, and probably in some sectors a decrease in security while the corruption in the police department is sorted out. It's going to mean that Egyptians need to be patient- and I don't think they're willing to be THAT patient. Even if your house is infested with termites- it still keeps you dry when it rains.
My guess for what is going to happen is Choice A. Holding a referendum on whether the military should stay or go would be a disaster for the democratic process, because most Egyptians would choose security and stability over more freedoms.